India Ratings and Research told the condition of the Indian economy. The growth rate for the fourth quarter is estimated to be 6.7 percent. RBI had estimated the GDP growth rate to be 7% for 2023-24.
Economic Outlook by India Ratings
and Research
India Ratings and Research (INDRA) expects
the country’s gross domestic product (GDP)
growth rate to be 6.7 percent in the March quarter and around 6.9-7 percent in the financial year 2023-24. Sunil Kumar Sinha, chief economist of the rating agency, has expressed this estimate. The government will release preliminary estimates of GDP growth for the fourth quarter (January-March 2024) and financial year 2023-24 on May 31.
Growth Rate Projections: Q4 Estimates and FY 2023-24 Forecasts
The Indian economy has grown at the rate of 8.2 percent in the June quarter of 2023-24, 8.1 percent in the September quarter and 8.4 percent in the December quarter. “We are expecting the fourth quarter growth rate to be 6.7 percent and the overall GDP growth rate for FY 2023-24 will be around 6.9-7 percent,” Sinha told PTI Video in an interview.
In its monetary policy review in April, the Reserve Bank had estimated the GDP growth rate to be 7 percent for 2023-24. Regarding economic growth in the current financial year, Sinha said that GDP is expected to increase by 7.1 percent.
Analysis of Quarterly Performance
Sinha said the growth rate in the first two quarters benefited from a low base, although the growth rate of 8.4 percent in the third (October-December 2023) quarter was ‘surprising’. He further said that when we analyze the data, we find that there is a difference between Gross Value Added (GVA) and GDP. A big boost to GDP in the third quarter came from higher tax collections, but this is unlikely to happen in the fourth quarter.
GVA vs. GDP: Understanding the Discrepancy
Gross value added (GVA) in the third quarter stood at 6.5 percent, while GDP growth rate was 8.4 percent. This difference is due to higher taxes collected during the quarter. In the first quarter, GVA and GDP growth was 8.2 percent, while in the second quarter, GVA wa
Disclaimer
Information here is for education only. Not investment advice. Consult a financial advisor for decisions."